FRANKFURT — For all the talk about Germany’s financial exposure to Greece, it turns out that some German banks have a problem of more titanic proportions — their vulnerability to the global shipping trade.
Germany’s 10 largest banks have 98 billion euros, or $128 billion, in outstanding credit or other risks related to the global shipping industry, according to Moody’s Investors Service. That is more than double the value of their holdings of government debt from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. And it is more than any other country’s financial exposure to the shipping industry, which is in the fifth year of a recession.
Moreover, German banks bear a generous share of the blame for spawning that recession. By helping to finance and market funds used to build and buy ships, a popular tax shelter, the banks helped create a glut in large container ships that has led to a collapse in cargo hauling prices worldwide.
Germans grumble chronically about having to pay for Greece’s bad debts, and German policy makers style themselves as guardians of fiscal prudence. But the shipping-related crisis, and the threat it poses to the German economy from billions of euros in bad loans and losses at shipping-related companies, is a reminder that German banks and political leaders also have plenty to answer for.
The recession in shipping has been overshadowed by the euro zone debt crisis, but it has many of the same causes. They include complex financial products that turned sour, market-distorting government incentives and a gigantic underestimation of risk.
“The container ship market is completely overbuilt,” said Thomas Mattheis, a partner at TPW Todt, an accounting firm in Hamburg that advises clients in the industry. He attributed the situation to banks that granted easy credit, cargo companies that ordered too many vessels and investors eager for the tax-free profits that were part of the allure, thanks to German law.
“When you look back you can say they all had a share,” Mr. Mattheis said.
HSH Nordbank in Hamburg, the world’s largest provider of maritime finance, is expected to raise its estimate of potential losses from shipping on Wednesday when it reports quarterly earnings. The bank, owned by local governments and savings banks, has already warned that in coming years it will need to avail itself of 1.3 billion euros in guarantees offered by Hamburg and the state of Schleswig-Holstein, putting a further strain on taxpayers.
“I have to admit that grave mistakes were made in the years before 2009,” Constantin von Oesterreich, chief executive of HSH, said in an interview published on Saturday by The Hamburger Abendblatt. In October, Mr. von Oesterreich became the bank’s third chief executive since 2008.
Other German banks that were particularly active in ship finance, including Commerzbank in Frankfurt and NordLB in Hanover, which both rank in the top five globally in that market, have said they have made adequate provisions for losses and will not need any government aid.
Commerzbank, which is partly owned by the German government after a bailout, shut down a unit specializing in ship financing this year and is winding down its holdings. The bank warned in its most recent quarterly report that it would be at least another year before it could sell units that were set up to finance construction of cargo ships with names including Marseille and Palermo. While larger, relatively new cargo ships sell for tens of millions of dollars, older, smaller ships often fetch only a few million — not much more than the value of the scrap metal.
Exposure to shipping is one reason Moody’s affirmed its negative outlook for German banks last month. In a report, the ratings agency warned that the global shipping industry “faces weakened demand amid sluggish global economic growth and evolving structural overcapacity.” It said money that the 10 largest German banks had lent to the shipping industry equaled 60 percent of their capital, the funds held in reserve for potential losses.
The shipping crisis has already caused a string of bankruptcies worldwide. Last month, the Overseas Shipholding Group, based in New York, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company, which specializes in transporting oil and petroleum products, continues to operate while it seeks to restructure.
Last year, Beluga Reederei, a shipping company in Bremen, collapsed with the loss of about 550 jobs, according to The Weser-Kurier newspaper. Beluga’s majority owner was Oaktree Capital Management, an investment firm based in Los Angeles.
From a financial point of view, Germany has been hit especially hard by the shipping crisis because of the popularity of funds used to finance ship construction, as well as a tradition of ship finance by German banks. Ship funds, usually organized by specialized firms but often marketed and financed by banks, benefited from a law that taxes ships according to size, rather than revenue.
Any profits that ships generated were almost tax-free. But many investors did not realize that they would still be liable for paying the underlying tax on the ships, even if there were no profits. In some cases, they were even expected to repay past dividends to cover loan payments on money-losing ships.
These days, few are profitable. According to industry estimates, some 300 big container ships are idle in ports around the world for lack of customers.
“A lot of investors had no idea that there was a big risk in this investment segment,” said Jan-Henning Ahrens, a partner at KWAG, a law firm in Bremen that represents aggrieved investors.
Even if the industry recovers, which will take several more years at least, any revenue that ships generate will go to repay debt, Mr. Ahrens said. “The chances of getting money back are bad, if not zero,” he said.
Ship funds were originally conceived decades ago as a way to support employment in the shipping industry. Even after construction of most large ships moved to Asia in the 1990s, the tax breaks persevered and, theoretically, helped ensure employment for German crews as well as contracts for companies in northern Germany that supply services and technology to the industry.
Industry watchers agree that, with rare exceptions, ship funds have lost their appeal for years to come. Healthier shipping companies are taking advantage of the market to acquire vessels for little more than their scrap value.
And one of the big buyers, Costamare, is a Greek company.
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